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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd