Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Polling materials in Myanmar
The country's junta is holding a phased election over the next month.

The nation is holding an election in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with major political parties banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for interfering with or criticising the polls under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".

Bradley Hart
Bradley Hart

Lars Jansen is a seasoned bonus analyst with over a decade of experience in the rewards industry.